TrendForce: Seasonal Slowdown Puts Solar Supply Chain Prices Under Pressure

Solar supply chain prices face renewed downward pressure as a seasonal demand slowdown approaches, according to an October 29, 2026 report from TrendForce. The pressure varies across the chain: polysilicon inventories remain high, while lower cell production has helped improve the balance between supply and demand.

Polysilicon inventories remain above 560,000 metric tons, with significant oversupply creating a risk that prices could appear stable while discounts emerge in actual transactions. Wafer inventories stand at approximately 27 GW, and prices are relatively stable but weak.

Solar cell inventories are equivalent to around six to seven days, while scheduled production in October fell from the previous month. TrendForce said the supply-demand balance has improved at the margin and cell prices have broadly stabilized.

The contrast suggests that price pressure is not uniform across the supply chain. High polysilicon stocks leave that segment exposed to weaker demand, whereas the reduction in planned cell production has provided some near-term support for cell prices. Whether that stability holds will depend on how demand, production schedules and inventories evolve through the seasonal slowdown.